What the market knows
before it says so.

The market just lived through its biggest stress test since 2022 and is now pretending it didn't. Shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz beginning in March pulled nearly 20 percent of global LNG supply off the market and sent prices spiking across every major importing region. Diplomatic progress between the US and Iran has since reopened key routes and brought gas and oil prices down sharply, though a geopolitical risk premium remains priced in. The lesson buyers will not say out loud: portfolio diversification stopped being a slide in the deck and became the whole deck.

Henry Hub is sitting around $3.25 per MMBtu, supported by robust supply, with Lower 48 production averaging roughly 110 Bcf per day in June, near record highs. Europe is a different animal. Prompt TTF futures climbed to roughly $14.57 per MMBtu as heat driven demand kept European prices supported. That spread is the entire American export thesis in one line.

Feedgas tells the story. Flows to major US export terminals averaged 17.3 Bcf per day in June, and Golden Pass set feedgas records during the ramp. Demand is finding new doors too. US LNG exports to Latin America hit a 37 month high, with Brazil becoming the top destination on a 400 percent jump.

The quiet number to watch: a record eight vessels from Russia's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project called at China's port of Beihai in June, aided by improved conditions on the Northern Sea Route. The market is splitting into two markets. Price accordingly.

Abu Dhabi is not waiting. XRG completed the acquisition of an additional equity interest in Trains 4 and 5 of Rio Grande LNG at Brownsville. Eni and Mercuria formed a trading joint venture positioned to market their growing US LNG portfolios. Delfin is moving on three floating LNG units off Louisiana with combined capacity up to 13.2 million tonnes annually.

On the operator side, Cheniere raised its full year adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $7.25 to $7.75 billion, up from $6.75 to $7.25 billion. Houston is having a good year and saying it quietly.

The supply wave has a dent in it. Damage to Qatari liquefaction infrastructure is expected to delay the global LNG expansion wave by at least two years, with a cumulative loss near 120 billion cubic meters through 2030, keeping markets tight through 2026 and 2027. Tight markets are bad for buyers and very good for anyone holding flexible US offtake.

The structural headline remains Brussels. The EU reached a historic agreement to fully phase out Russian gas by November 2027, ending five decades of dependence and opening an estimated 33 bcm of market space for non Russian suppliers. That is a customer acquisition event dressed as a sanctions policy.

Stateside, Cove Point has applied for blanket authorization to export previously imported LNG, up to the equivalent of 70 Bcf over two years beginning July 8. And in Australia, Viva Energy's proposed Geelong gas terminal received federal environmental approval, clearing it to proceed subject to conditions.

Watch who shows up in Bangkok. Gastech runs September 14 through 17 in Bangkok, and after the Hormuz scare, every buyer walking that floor wants supply that never touches a chokepoint. The sellers who understand they are now selling insurance, not molecules, will write the best contracts of the decade.